The French real estate market in 2024 recorded a marked decline in the number of transactions, with approximately 750,000 deeds signed according to the Notaires de France. This contraction is accompanied by a price adjustment and a reshaping of buying behaviors, under the combined effect of still high credit rates and the tightening of energy requirements on the existing stock.
Old real estate market: a correction that does not affect all territories in the same way
The decline in transactions in 2024 did not hit the territory uniformly. Major metropolitan areas experienced dynamics very different from rural or suburban areas. In Paris and several regional capitals, the correction in prices reached significant levels, while some markets in medium-sized cities fared better due to sustained local demand supported by still affordable prices.
This territorial discrepancy illustrates a phenomenon that notaries now refer to as a two-speed real estate market. Properties located in tight areas are under the dual pressure of restrictive credit rates and historically high prices, which hinders first-time buyers. In contrast, sectors where the price per square meter remains moderate continue to attract buyers, particularly households seeking living space.
The data published in the news on the Trend Immo website confirms this geographical fragmentation, which reshapes rental investment strategies as well as home ownership.
Mortgage rates in 2024: the factor that has constrained demand
After the sharp rise that began in 2022, mortgage rates stabilized during 2024 without returning to favorable levels. This stagnation directly impacted households’ borrowing capacity, mechanically reducing the number of projects realized.
Real estate purchasing power, calculated in financeable area for a given income, continued to contract in most major urban areas. For the same monthly repayment budget, a borrower could acquire significantly fewer square meters than in 2021.
Industry professionals observed a shift in demand towards cheaper properties or secondary locations. This phenomenon fueled the geographical redistribution of transactions mentioned earlier, while maintaining pressure on the rental market in areas where purchasing became out of reach.
Energy regulation and ban on renting energy-inefficient properties
The year 2024 marked a milestone in the implementation of the Climate and Resilience law, with the prohibition of renting homes classified as G in the energy performance diagnosis (DPE). This measure had concrete repercussions on the market:
- Some landlords put properties up for sale that they could no longer rent, increasing supply in certain segments of the old market
- The cost of energy renovation work weighed on investors’ decisions, who sometimes preferred to turn to properties already compliant
- The green value of homes, meaning the price difference between an energy-efficient property and an energy-inefficient one, has increased in several regions
This discount related to the DPE has now reached a level that significantly impacts negotiations. Buyers systematically incorporate the estimated cost of renovations into their purchase offers, which drives the prices of energy-inefficient properties down well beyond the market average.
New real estate: a structurally declining supply
New construction continued to struggle in 2024. The number of building permits issued and construction starts continued to decline, extending a trend that began in previous years. Developers are facing rising construction costs, a scarcity of available land, and weakened demand due to credit conditions.
The planned end of the Pinel scheme also weighed on the rental investment segment in new properties. Without comparable tax incentives, individual investors largely turned away from this market, thereby reducing the volume of reservations with developers.
Outlook 2025-2026: normalization rather than a strong recovery
The most recent data published by the Notaires de France in their economic note for the first quarter of 2026 do not describe a spectacular rebound. Prices for existing properties show quasi-stability year-on-year, around +0.1 to +0.2 %, and the preliminary contracts signed suggest a slight decline in the summer of 2026, in the order of -0.2 to -0.6 %.
The notaries speak of normalization of activity rather than recovery. Transaction volumes are gradually rising from the low point of September 2024, but remain below the levels observed before the overheating period. Apartments appear slightly more resilient than houses in terms of prices.
Several factors will condition the future:
- The evolution of the European Central Bank’s key rates, which could gradually loosen credit conditions
- The actual extent of energy renovations undertaken by landlords, in light of the ban on renting properties classified as F scheduled for 2028
- The ability of the new construction sector to revive production despite heavy land and regulatory constraints
The French real estate market is going through a consolidation phase after the strong fluctuations observed between 2021 and 2024. Territorial disparities are expected to continue to assert themselves in the coming months, and a return to a historically balanced zone in terms of volumes does not guarantee a rapid restart of prices.